Chapter 14

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Development Center, Nevada / DARPA head office
August 17, 2005, 0830 Pacific Standard Time

Charles had been sitting in his office considering what he should do about Jackson's replacement, Sergeant Rapelli. He had been on the project for a month now, and while Rapelli was well liked, he was not the same caliber as Jackson. Richard lost no opportunity to complain about Rapelli's inability to grasp the concepts, and his failure to understand the technology behind MAADS.
Jackson had been diligent in handing over the material he had worked on, but Charles could see that Rapelli had made little progress, and arguably had gone backwards in the work required to select a weapon and integrate it into MAADS. Charles knew he had to do something about Rapelli, but he had just been handed a more urgent problem.

At DARPA's suggestion, they had contracted Dr. Gerrard Kohl, an expert on launching aerial vehicles, to design a launch system for MAADS. Gerrard knew a lot about launching aerial vehicles, especially electromagnetic launch systems, the mechanism the US Navy had selected to launch manned planes.

Charles initially found Gerrard persuasive, but Richard soon became antagonistic toward him. After one tense confrontation, Charles took Richard to one side, and asked what his problem was.

Richard said, “Gerrard is defensive when I correct his errors of fact or logic.”

Charles told Richard, “Gerrard is only with the project for a couple of weeks, so suck it up and try to be civil to the man, that is, if you can't manage nice.”

Charles tried to keep an open mind, understanding that you disagree with recognized experts at your peril. They become recognized experts in the first place by knowing their subject, and knowing how to persuade influential people they do.

Before Gerrard left, he told Charles he would have his proposal available for review in a week’s time. Charles thanked him for his help, and said he looked forward to receiving it.

Charles had just received Gerrard's proposal. As he read through the document, the problems jumped right out at him. The weight of the electromagnetic launcher was more than two hundred kilos, which blew their carefully managed two thousand kilo weight limit. The launcher was bulky, and Gerrard's proposal was to incorporate it into the MAADS control unit's ramp, extending it the length of the container. It would mean putting a false floor in the container, and losing more than 20 percent of the container's internal space, and necessitating a redesign of the container, already in production at the vendor.

They might have been able to live with these problems, but Gerrard's proposal required they incorporate a high voltage power system into MAADS, and that meant either changing how all the MAADS subsystems were powered, or installing a complete second power system with the attendant weight, space, and most importantly schedule implications.

He emailed copies of the proposal to Richard and Fiona, with a request to present their conclusions later that afternoon. Sammy was taking a camping vacation with his kids, and while Charles would have liked his input, he also needed to make a decision today. He encrypted a copy of the proposal using his private key, and emailed it to Sammy, with a request to respond as soon as possible. He then began to list his issues with the proposal.

By four-thirty p.m., he had organized his thoughts, and called Richard and Fiona into his office. When they arrived, he walked over and shut the door, contrary to his usual practice of keeping it open.

“I have reached my own conclusions about Gerrard's report, but I want to hear your reactions. Fiona, would you like to go first?”

Charles recognized Fiona’s hesitation as a reluctance to criticize the work of others. “What Gerrard is proposing should work, but it seems over-engineered in comparison to what we are working on. My initial reaction was, Gerrard has taken the Navy launch system, he helped design, and scaled it down to a size suitable for launching small aerial vehicles, and to fit into our MAADS container. In order to do that, he has come up with an unproven custom design, we will need to spend a lot of time building or getting outside contractors to build.”

Charles could see that Richard was anxious to have his say, but he wanted Fiona to finish first. “Fiona, would you support this proposal in preference to the mechanism we are working on?”

“No, Charles. I would not.”

“Your turn, Richard.”

“This is one of the worst cases of starting with a solution, and recasting the problem to fit the solution, I have ever seen.

“Launching a manned vehicle is a fundamentally different problem to launching an unmanned vehicle. The man in a manned system dictates how you accelerate it to launch speed. You must accelerate the vehicle uniformly and slowly to minimize the G-Force stresses on the pilot. Unmanned vehicles don't have this restriction. You can subject them to G-forces at least an order of magnitude greater with no adverse effects.

“An electromagnetic launch system gives you very precise control over the aerial vehicle's acceleration, and that's the reason you use one, but we don't need that control. Ergo, it's a solution to a problem we don't have.

Jeff paused, and Charles saw the slight smile through the bushy beard that signified Jeff knew something that nobody else did.

“And, by the way, it won't work.”

“What do you mean, it won't work?”

“What I mean is, it won't work.”

Charles was familiar with Richard's liking for dramatic revelations that showed he was at least one intellectual step ahead of everyone else.

“Skip the pedantry and tell me why.”

“I may not be an expert on bird flight, but I do know something about adaptive systems, and our aerial vehicle in flight is an adaptive system. All adaptive systems have one characteristic in common, they need time to stabilize. Fiona tells us that we need gravity induced acceleration in order to gain enough speed to achieve flight. What she should be telling us is, gravity induced acceleration allows the vehicle time for the software systems to adapt to stable flight.”

Fiona quietly said, “Richard's right. It's just, I don't think of it that way.”

Charles said, “Let me get this straight. You are telling me Gerrard's launch mechanism won't work.”

“It's a bit subtler than that. I tried to explain this to Gerrard and he refused to listen.”

Charles knew Richard's 'explanations' were frequently delivered in a way that made them difficult to both understand and accept. Charles didn't know whether Richard did this deliberately or not, but the result was he got his moment of high theater when he made his revelation. Pointing out to him that he should have explained this earlier would only result in Richard saying he had and you didn't listen to him.

“Explain it to me.”

“Gerrard is familiar with aerial vehicles that have rigid flight surfaces. A vehicle with rigid, fixed flight surfaces is always in a stable flight configuration. That's not true for a vehicle with adaptive surfaces. Gerrard has assumed he only has to solve the problem of getting the vehicle up to the right speed. He doesn't understand that the aerial vehicle needs time to achieve a stable flight configuration.”

Charles asked, “So what do we do?”

“I predict that when we raise this problem, Gerrard will push the problem back onto us. He will say, we will have to change our vehicle so that it leaves the launch mechanism capable of stable flight. That's a solvable problem, but it will require a major rewrite of the flight control software.”

Charles interjected, “Which requires even more of the one thing we don't have enough of, time.”

Fiona said, “Richard, how do you know this?”

“It would be easy to say by observing the aerial vehicle taking off, but it wouldn't be true. People believe they solve problems and achieve understanding by observing the facts, and then formulating an explanation based on the facts. In reality, people always observe the facts in the context of a pre-existing understanding.

“I understand adaptive systems, so when I first saw the aerial vehicle, I didn't only see something that flew like a bird, I saw a software system adapting to feedback in order to achieve a stable state. The first time I saw it take off from the ski-jump ramp, it was obvious to me that it needed time in the air to achieve that stable state.

“I'm sure we can rewrite the software such that the aerial vehicle leaves the end of the ramp already in a stable state.”

Fiona asked, “How long will the rewrite take?”

Charles spoke before Richard could respond. “It doesn't matter how long a rewrite takes because it's more time than we have. I'd already concluded Gerrard's proposal would blow our schedule, and add months to the project. You've just told me the problem is worse than I thought.

“When you miss your scheduled delivery date, everyone knows about it, while the reasons often get lost. Between you and me, Gerrard is trying to use the MAADS project as a test bed for his pet theories on launching small aerial vehicles, and he is not going to do that at the expense of my reputation for delivering projects on time.

“You know my views on missing scheduled delivery dates, and changing the specification during development without a compelling reason. Both are major risk factors for project failure, which means we fight this proposal.

“One other thing about Dr. Kohl's proposal bothers me. In fact it bothers me so much, that I would object to his proposal on principle alone, for this reason. When we analyzed the autonomous launch, we found the hard parts to solve were, positioning on the takeoff ramp and refueling. Once you have solved those two problems. The launch itself is a relatively straightforward problem. But Gerrard ignores those two issues because he knows we are well on our way to solving them, and just focuses on the launch itself.

“How these things work is, people focus on the 'big idea' and ignore, or gloss over, the ancillary problems that have to be solved in order for the 'big idea' to work. Gerrard is a slick politician. He will sell electromagnetic launch as the big idea that solved autonomous launch of aerial vehicles, and given his reputation, he will probably succeed, even though such a claim would be ludicrous to people like us, who understand what's involved.

“Gerrard Kohl is trying to enhance his reputation at our expense, and I am not going to let him,” Charles added as an afterthought. “As a matter of principle.”

***

Charles enlisted Richard and Fiona's help in drafting a detailed proposal to use the hydraulic catapult mechanism they were working on. Their document contained an analysis of why they had rejected alternatives, including, nonspecifically, Gerrard’s electromagnetic launch system. Their reasons for rejecting other alternatives were just window dressing, but that was how the game was played.

It took all three of them away from the things they should be working on, but this was one fight Charles knew he could not afford to lose.

Charles was certain, Gerrard would use his political connections to try to block their counter proposal. Charles was familiar with the problem of experts sensitive to rejection of their conclusions, however valid the reasons.

Charles made sure their proposal got into the hands of the relevant people at DARPA before he told Gerrard of their counterproposal. Not unexpectedly, DARPA summoned Charles to an urgent meeting the next day to review both proposals. He considered taking Richard with him, but concluded Richard's antipathy toward Gerrard would be too obvious, and risked creating the perception, their rejection of Gerrard's proposal was based on personal factors rather than substantive issues.

He decided to take Fiona instead. She was the recognized authority on the aerial vehicles, and while she lacked Richard's ability to persuade, she always came across as having soberly considered the facts before reaching her conclusions.

When Charles and Fiona arrived for the meeting the next day, Jason Watts, DARPA’s Deputy Director of Projects greeted them warmly. Jason was a well dressed and groomed man in his forties with a voice that spoke of an East coast upbringing and a private education. Charles recognized in Jason, something of himself, a capable research scientist whose real talent was in working with people and processes.

“How are you Charles? This must be Dr. Lachlan. It is a real pleasure to meet you, Fiona. I understand you are a graduate of St Andrews. I was there for a symposium a couple of years ago. Lovely place, and naturally I played on the old course. I hope you are enjoying your time here in the USA, and we have been treating you well.”

Fiona smiled sweetly. Charles wasn't sure whether it was because she was flattered, or because she wasn't taken in by the flattery.

Jason continued, “While you are here, I'd like you to give me an update on MAADS, but first we need to get this review meeting out of the way. I'm sure your reasons, for rejecting Dr. Kohl's proposal and proposing your own launch mechanism, are sound. But he is our authority on aerial vehicle launch systems, and we just want to be sure, we proceed with the right proposal.”

Charles knew that now was not the time to present his arguments, and he kept the conversation light.

“It's always a pleasure to see you, Jason. MAADS is making good progress, and we are keeping to our original schedule, except for a couple of issues I would like to discuss with you. I am confident we can be the first robotic system to fully automate the recovery and launch of an aerial vehicle.”

Charles had planted the idea in Jason's head that no one had built an autonomous aerial vehicle recovery and launch capability. Therefore, any claim to be an authority on the subject was questionable.

“I'm sure if anyone can, your very able team can, but Gerrard is a little upset you rejected his proposal, and submitted your own. He has some influence with the Director, and convinced him we needed a formal review of both proposals. I have confidence in your judgment, and if it were up to me there would be no need.

“When did Gerrard see our proposal?”

“I gave him a copy late yesterday, enough time to digest it before today's meeting.”

“Thanks, Jason.”

Jason had done Charles a favor by not allowing Gerrard time to research and prepare counter arguments to their proposal. The review by the committee at such short notice should work to their advantage.

“I suggest we go. It's almost time for the review meeting.”

Jason led them to a well-appointed conference room where six people were already present. Jason made the introductions, and made a point of personally introducing Fiona to everyone on the committee.

Jason said, “The purpose of this meeting is to review two proposals for an aerial vehicle launch mechanism for the Mobile Autonomous Area Denial System project. Given the pioneering nature of this technology, we are fortunate Dr. Gerrard Kohl could make himself available as a consultant to the MAADS project, and prepare one of the proposals. I am sure, whichever proposal we select, he will provide invaluable advice and guidance.

“I would like Dr. Fiona Lachlan to introduce the innovative aerial vehicle she has developed.”
Jason smiled at Fiona who rose and came to the front of the room, holding her laptop computer.
After she had plugged it into the projector, Fiona said, “I have a short introduction to the aerial vehicle we developed in the UK. We refer to it as an autonomous aerial vehicle rather than an unmanned aerial vehicle because of the important differences between an unmanned vehicle flown by a remote operator and an autonomous vehicle flown by onboard software.”
It took Fiona ten minutes to run through her standard overview of the aerial vehicles. She had given it at least twenty times before, and merely had to glance occasionally at her slides. When she finished, Jason thanked her for such a clear and concise exposition.

Jason then asked Charles to present the MAADS team's proposal.

Charles knew how to manipulate people and situations to achieve his objectives. He had already noted Jason's tactic of praising Gerrard's contribution in order to give him a face-saving way out of the situation, and to sugar the pill of rejection, should it occur.

“First of all, I would like to thank Dr. Kohl for the invaluable help he has given us. His experience and advice were instrumental in leading us to the solution we propose for autonomous recovery and launch of the aerial vehicle Fiona described.”

Charles had chosen his words carefully. They were literally true, and could be interpreted as an expression of praise and gratitude for Kohl's help, if you were unaware of the facts. Charles knew he needed a subtle argument that emphasized that launch was only part of the problem and arguably a less important part than recovery.

“The characteristics of our aerial vehicle allow us to take an innovative approach to autonomous recovery. Our aerial vehicle has the ability to land vertically. This allows us to precisely place the vehicle for refueling and launch.

“We have performed a number of tests to determine our aerial vehicle's ability to withstand accelerational stresses, and found they can easily withstand the 60 Gs involved in a conventional catapult launch.

“Our philosophy for MAADS is to use simple designs, incorporating off-the-shelf components, instead of custom designed and built components, even if that means we accept a less than ideal solution to a problem.”

Charles hadn't actually said their off-the-shelf solution was inferior, but the implication was there if anyone wished to make that interpretation.

“Dr. Kohl’s experience in launch systems was invaluable in helping us arrive at our proposed solution, which we feel is the best solution. Bear in mind, 'best' doesn’t always mean the optimum technical solution. We are always aware of the trade-off between time and resources, and the excellence of the solution. Our objective on the MAADS project is to deliver something that works, within the time and resources available to us.

“We have less than a year to develop MAADS to the point of a proof-of-concept. This isn't a decade long program that can afford many incrementally improving prototypes. We need to be confident, what we attempt will work the first time. No one has ever built an electromagnetic launch mechanism at the small scale we require. In contrast, hydraulic catapult systems of the size we require are widely used, and work reliably.

“When we decided to put forward our own proposal for a launch system, it wasn't because we thought Gerrard's proposal was somehow inferior or flawed in relation to our solution, it was simply because Gerrard’s solution requires more time and resources than we have available to us. I'm sure, programs that do have the time will use Gerrard’s excellent proposal, and had we the time, we would have been happy to proceed with his launch mechanism.”

As Charles sat down, he was certain he had got his message across. The senior DARPA people around the table knew, as well as he did, that the most reliable predictor of project failure was how much you overran your schedule. Overrun by more than 30 percent, and the project was odds-on to fail. Not coincidentally, Charles’ estimate for implementing Gerrard’s proposal was an almost 30 percent increase in schedule length. The committee would get the message.
Charles thought how, in recent years, there had been a realization that long development schedules were inherently a bad idea. They created a culture of unnecessarily complex solutions and endless incremental improvement, instead of starting with the best pre-existing mechanism and stopping when the solution was good enough. This was especially true in software projects, and robotic systems were primarily software systems. It was difficult to communicate to outsiders, but it didn’t matter how long you develop a software system, it's never finished.
There is always more you can do to improve it.

Jason thanked Charles for his presentation, and asked Gerrard to present his proposal.
Gerrard ran through his presentation with a noticeable lack of conviction. When Gerrard reached his conclusions, Charles knew he had won. Gerrard was following up on his themes of needing to weigh technical excellence against resource and time constraints.

After a number of questions directed at both Charles and Gerrard, Jason thanked everyone for attending at such short notice. He then asked Charles and Fiona to wait in his office while the committee considered the two proposals.

Jason joined them fifteen minutes later. “It didn’t even come to a vote. Gerrard said, if keeping to the schedule was more important than technical excellence, the committee should select your proposal. The committee understands MAADS is about a short development cycle utilizing commercially available components, even if Gerrard doesn't. They accepted your proposal unanimously.

“Well done, Charles. Fiona, you positively charmed them. Now what can I do for you?”

Charles responded, “Do you remember Sergeant Jackson, the Special Forces weapons specialist you arranged for us to have on secondment.”

“I recall the name.”

“Well, the injury that kept him off active service healed, and his unit wanted him back. They gave us a replacement, a Sergeant Rapelli.”

“And the problem is what precisely?”

“Jason, you know as well as I do, getting someone up to speed on any kind of complex technology takes time and effort, especially when the person doesn't have a technical background to begin with. We spent the time with Jackson, then spent the time with Rapelli. Unfortunately, Rapelli isn't working out. The tasks he is working on are well behind schedule, and I'm going to have to request he leaves the project. If possible, we'd like to get Sergeant Jackson back. We thought he was good.”

“How good?”

“I'm probably as guilty as the next person for thinking soldiers become soldiers because they are not bright enough to do anything else, but Sergeant Jackson was a very good, analytical problem solver who readily understood concepts and technology.”

“And how does Sergeant Jackson feel about this?”

“The last time I spoke to him, was the day he left the project, five weeks ago. His attitude was 'orders are orders'. His personal preferences didn't come into it. However, since then I have learned he requested to be taken off the project, which surprised me because he was starting to show genuine interest and involvement in what we are doing.

“Charles, is this a disguised request for more time to complete the MAADS proof-of-concept?”

“If we can get Jackson back, I believe we can make up the slippage in the schedule.”

“No promises, but I will see what I can do. Delta Force always wants to test the latest high-tech goodies, and then invariably criticize them. It is high time they understood that getting what they want requires they participate in the process to get there.”

Jason called Charles two days later. “You get Sergeant Delisle Jackson from the third week in September, until your project's scheduled end date.”

“Thanks Jason. I owe you one.”

“I'd say you owe me two or three. I'm told he requested to leave the project because he didn't think his expertise and experience were valued. I suggest you rectify that perception. Give my warm regards to Dr. Lachlan.”

Chapter 15